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4 Aug 2014
Leveraged funds turned net long USD - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Khoon Goh, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, reviews the futures positioning data for the week ending 29 July, noting that leveraged funds turned net long in USD for the first time since mid-June ahead of the US NFP.
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds turned net long in USD for the first time since mid-June ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release. Positioning in USD rose by USD4.7bn, going from a net short position of USD0.5bn to a net long position of USD4.2bn. Most of the changes in positioning occurred via EUR and JPY."
"Bearish bets against the EUR rose for the second consecutive week to their highest since mid-August 2012. Total net short position now stands at USD85.1bn, an increase of USD2.8bn from the week prior. Note that the last time EUR positioning was at current levels, EUR/USD was more than 10 big figures lower than the current spot price."
"The increase in JPY net short positioning was fairly sizeable during the week, rising by 12.8k contracts worth USD1.5bn to 58k for an overall short position of USD7.1bn."
"Net long positions in GBP have been reduced for the fifth consecutive week, dragging on sterling. Leveraged funds still maintain a large net long position in GBP worth USD10.7bn, suggesting potential for a further unwinding of sterling longs."
"We were surprised to see only a small reduction in NZD net long positions by 0.6k contracts worth USD0.1bn. Following the RBNZ decision on 24 July and the Fonterra downgrade to their milk price forecast on 29 July, we were expecting a much larger decline in positioning (see Figure 11). AUD positioning bucked the trend during the week, rising by 0.6k contracts (worth USD0.1bn) to 44.3k (worth USD4.2b)."
"Net long non-commercial positions in gold fell by 11.9k contracts to 154.8k. Net long positioning in WTI crude oil fell by 11.3k contracts to 378.8k. This is the fifth consecutive weekly decline in oil positioning since it reached historic highs in late June."
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds turned net long in USD for the first time since mid-June ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release. Positioning in USD rose by USD4.7bn, going from a net short position of USD0.5bn to a net long position of USD4.2bn. Most of the changes in positioning occurred via EUR and JPY."
"Bearish bets against the EUR rose for the second consecutive week to their highest since mid-August 2012. Total net short position now stands at USD85.1bn, an increase of USD2.8bn from the week prior. Note that the last time EUR positioning was at current levels, EUR/USD was more than 10 big figures lower than the current spot price."
"The increase in JPY net short positioning was fairly sizeable during the week, rising by 12.8k contracts worth USD1.5bn to 58k for an overall short position of USD7.1bn."
"Net long positions in GBP have been reduced for the fifth consecutive week, dragging on sterling. Leveraged funds still maintain a large net long position in GBP worth USD10.7bn, suggesting potential for a further unwinding of sterling longs."
"We were surprised to see only a small reduction in NZD net long positions by 0.6k contracts worth USD0.1bn. Following the RBNZ decision on 24 July and the Fonterra downgrade to their milk price forecast on 29 July, we were expecting a much larger decline in positioning (see Figure 11). AUD positioning bucked the trend during the week, rising by 0.6k contracts (worth USD0.1bn) to 44.3k (worth USD4.2b)."
"Net long non-commercial positions in gold fell by 11.9k contracts to 154.8k. Net long positioning in WTI crude oil fell by 11.3k contracts to 378.8k. This is the fifth consecutive weekly decline in oil positioning since it reached historic highs in late June."