US: Vaccination process is encouraging but we still expect weak data – TDS

Previewing the last macroeconomic data releases from the US ahead of the new year, TD Securities analysts said they expect to see weak data despite the fact that the vaccination process is encouraging for 2021.

Key quotes

"Consumption likely fell in November, similar to the pattern already reported for the less comprehensive retail sales series. Income likely fell, even more, dragged down by a fading of the boost from fiscal stimulus."

"Employment is probably starting to decline again as well. Jobless claims can be especially volatile near year-end, and we expect a decline this week, but they have risen since the sample week for the November employment report."

"Core PCE inflation likely remained weak in November: We estimate 0.0% m/m and 1.4% y/y."