USD/CAD Price Analysis: On the rise, bulls need a break above 4H 100SMA

• USD/CAD's recovery from 1.3315 looks to have stalled at key SMA hurdle. 
• A clean break above the SMA hurdle is needed to restore the immediate bullish view.

While USD/CAD has bounced up from the session low of 1.3532 to 1.3560, it is too early to call a revival of the recovery rally from the June 10 low of 1.3315. 

This is because the resistance of the 4-hour chart 100-candle simple moving average (SMA) is still intact. The bulls have repeatedly failed to establish a strong foothold above that SMA in the last seven days. 

A convincing break above the 4H 100-period SMA, currently at 1.3592, would imply a continuation of the recovery rally from 1.3315 and open the doors to key resistance near 1.38. That level is currently housing the trendline falling from March 19 and May 14 highs. 

That said, the 14-day relative strength index is still hovering in bearish territory below 50. As a result, a lack of quick progress above the key SMA hurdle would shift risk in favor of a drop to 1.3315. 

4-hour chart

Trend: Bullish above key SMA

Technical levels