Thailand: BoT to cut by 25bps – Standard Chartered

Thailand will release February trade data on 23 March and the Bank of Thailand will meet 25 March. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank with the preview. USD/THB 32.504.

Key quotes

“We expect exports to have fallen 7.4% y/y (USD 20.0bn) versus a 3.4% increase in January (2019: -2.7%).”

“Imports likely rose 2.9%, versus -7.9% in January, largely due to a low base (2019: -4.7%).”

“We estimate a trade surplus of USD 2.0bn (USD 9.6bn in 2019).”

“We expect the BoT to cut by 25bps, taking the policy rate to a new low of 0.75%. We do not rule out an intermeeting move, or a 50bps cut.”