US-China phase-one deal details may bring surprises – Nordea

Nordea Markets analysts suggest that we do not know all the details of the phase-one deal and the text will be finalised by January.

Key Quotes

“As expected, however, the deal concentrates on boosting bilateral trade, along with minor reductions in the existing tariffs. According to the US, China has promised to boost its imports from the US (including agricultural products) by USD 200bn during the next two years. That would be a huge increase, but we need to know more details to estimate the possible carve-out effect, eg for the EU.”

“China's promises to boost intellectual property rights and liberalisation of the financial sector have been on the table many times before, but these are not expected to drastically change the business environment for foreign companies in China.”

“Overall, we see the US-China trade deal as a continuation of Trump's earlier deals with Mexico, Canada, and Japan – much more talk than content.”