Australia: RBA, retail sales and trade balance in focus tomorrow - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the Australian trade surplus for March is expected to shrink from the lofty $A4.8b print for February, just down to magnitude.

Key Quotes

“March is notorious for cyclone-related stoppages for iron ore exports, while the Prelude LNG first shipment was in late March. So if the latter slips into April, expect any dip in March exports to be followed by a strong rebound in April.”

“Also released is March and Q1 retail sales, where we look for flat monthly sales (mkt 0.2%) and 0.3% q/q for sales volumes (mkt 0.3%). February was boosted by one-offs, but a firmer quarterly print is welcome after the feeble +0.1%/q for Q4.”

“Later, all eyes on the RBA OIS is 42% priced for a cut, while TD and analysts are neck and neck for a cut or pause (TD and median cut to 1.25% but by 14 vs 12). The RBA is widely expected to revise down GDP and CPI forecasts in Friday's SoMP, but the RBA Board could easily choose to pause and switch to an explicit easing bias via weak inflation, paving the way for an August cut.”