ECB: Change of view – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in accordance with the global trend toward more cautious central bank hikes, they are revising down their expectations for ECB rate hikes, with a single 15bps hike to the depo rate in December.

Key Quotes

“We expect the ECB to then hike at a cautious pace, with 25bps hikes occurring every six months thereafter. We do not expect the ECB to introduce TLTROs should macroeconomic data recover as we expect.”

“FX: We are revising lower our EURUSD forecasts on the back of our downgraded ECB expectations. We retain a broadly constructive outlook for the pair, but we have reduced our year-end expectation to 1.24 from 1.27. Near-term risks to our view are still skewed to the downside, but we could see upside risks emerge on longer horizons.”