US: ISM non-manufacturing to increase slightly to 56.0 in August - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the US ISM nonmanufacturing index to increase slightly by 0.3pp to 56.0 in August after a sharp 3.4pp drop in July.

Key Quotes

“Part of the weakness in July was related to another sharp decline in the supplier deliveries index.”

“We expect some modest payback in the August survey and believe that trade concerns may weigh less heavily on nonmanufacturing firms relative to the manufacturing survey. However, given that agricultural and mining firms are technically classified as nonmanufacturers, and that many of the retaliatory tariffs thus far have targeted agricultural products, there remains some downside risk to the August print.”