NZ labour market: Good news under the rusty hood - TDS

Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities, explains that New Zealand’s June quarter employment report underwhelmed and the market's focus quickly switched to Trump and tariff headlines, although deep in the weeds there is good news.

Key Quotes

“The +0.5%/q lift in jobs (80% were full-time) was a fraction higher than expected, and the participation rate hovers near record highs at 70.9%.”

“The preferred wages measure (private wages excluding overtime) underwhelmed at +0.6%/q (although as mkt expected) to be 2.1%/y. We expected the 4.8% jump in minimum wages to complement wage rises elsewhere, but there were stagnant wages for some public servants (teachers, nurses and tax officers) due to not agreeing on terms and conditions. So we expect a rebound if a deal is secured.”

“The unemployment rate of 4.5% is consistent with the Bank’s May forecast of 4.4%.”