US growth pulse to narrow? - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac, expect the US Q2 GDP to print 4.2% as a very strong Q2 outcome has long been expected by the market.

Key Quotes

“Following a modest gain of 2.0% in Q1, in part because of particularly poor weather, US GDP is set to bounce over 4.0%. There are a number of risks, primarily around deflators for trade and consumption, that could see the final number come out anywhere between 3.5% and 4.5% annualised. But to us the most likely outcome is circa 4.2%.”

“In terms of the components, trade and government spending are expected to be strong positives, with business investment and consumption also set to provide material support.”

“Following this release, attention will quickly turn to the second half of 2018. Here, expectations are also very high, but to us so are the risks.”

“In recent business investment partial data, there has been signs of a softening, and anecdotes on the effect from tariffs are rising. Real income growth for the consumer is also a looming constraint.”