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27 Jan 2014
Flash: Lagged COT data still negative for EUR/USD - FXStreet
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Goncalo Moreira CMT, FXStreet Technical Analyst notes that sentiment continued to shift against EUR as speculators extended their net position into negative territory for the first time since November 2013, with shorts adding to their positions and longs being trimmed.
Key Quotes
“Combined with an increase in open interest, which BTW increased across the board except in the yen, this could be an anticipation to more short squeezing. Notice the data herewith analysed corresponds to Tuesday the 21st and published last Friday, that is before the run-up in the euro.”
“Similar developments are seen with the Swiss franc positions which have shifted to net short whereby this currency is coming from a severe reduction in long speculative contracts since late December.”
“Australian dollars see their short net position increase, while New Zealand dollars remain net long since end of September. The yen net short position remains the largest among currencies, however, well off the late December numbers and narrowing steadily.”
“A confirmation of the US dollar bullish sentiment can be analysed in the form of an oscillator in the Euro and US dollars futures contracts. The converging lines in the non-commercials since the start of the year hint at more downside trend continuation in the EUR/USD.”
“Nevertheless, we don't recommend taking this situation to short EUR/USD based solely on this information. The oscillator is not at historical extremes, it is merely being used here as a trend indicator.”
Key Quotes
“Combined with an increase in open interest, which BTW increased across the board except in the yen, this could be an anticipation to more short squeezing. Notice the data herewith analysed corresponds to Tuesday the 21st and published last Friday, that is before the run-up in the euro.”
“Similar developments are seen with the Swiss franc positions which have shifted to net short whereby this currency is coming from a severe reduction in long speculative contracts since late December.”
“Australian dollars see their short net position increase, while New Zealand dollars remain net long since end of September. The yen net short position remains the largest among currencies, however, well off the late December numbers and narrowing steadily.”
“A confirmation of the US dollar bullish sentiment can be analysed in the form of an oscillator in the Euro and US dollars futures contracts. The converging lines in the non-commercials since the start of the year hint at more downside trend continuation in the EUR/USD.”
“Nevertheless, we don't recommend taking this situation to short EUR/USD based solely on this information. The oscillator is not at historical extremes, it is merely being used here as a trend indicator.”