USD/JPY topside capped near 115/00 – Commerzbank

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, USD/JPY upside appears capped around the 115.00 handle.

Key Quotes

“The topside remains capped by the 55 day ma at 114.96. We view the recent low at 111.59 as an interim low. Between these two limits the market is sidelined. A close above the 115.62 19th January high is needed to reintroduce scope to the key short term resistance offered by the 16 month resistance line at 117.93”.

“Only below 111.59 would introduce scope to the base of the cloud, which lies at 109.92 and, if seen, we look for this to hold (this is also the 50% retracement of the move up from November). However this is not our favoured view - we also note that the recent move lower continues to indicate that this is the end of the corrective move”.