UK industry continues to defy Brexit fears as May set to be the first to embrace Trump – AmpGFX

GBP firms ahead of UK PM Theresa May’s visit to the USA to be the first foreign leader to meet USA President Trump notes Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital.

Key Quotes

“The UK CBI survey of industrial trends showed a rise in its total orders diffusion index to +5, a high since Feb-2015, more than +2 expected.  The export orders balance also increased, although, at -9, is not as high as it might be considering the weaker exchange rate.”

“The CBI quarterly business optimism survey (+15) rose much more than expected (-8); export optimism outlook (+19) rose to a high since April-2014. The CBI diffusion index for selling prices in the next three months rose to a high (+28) since 2011, even though not quite as high as expected (+30), pointing to more inflationary pressure ahead.”

“The trends continue to suggest that the ravages of Brexit are yet to make a mark on the UK economy. The economic and inflation trends place upward pressure on UK rates and may put upward pressure on GBP.”

“The UK Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that UK PM May must pass a bill in parliament to proceed with Brexit.  May therefore must do so before end-March to meet her target date for triggering the so-called “Article 50” process.  This increased uncertainty somewhat, but was expected. The Article 50 bill will be published on Thursday.  Debate is supposed to begin on Tues/Wed next week.  The full process towards passage is likely to last until mid-March.”

“On Wednesday. May also made a concession to critics of Brexit, agreeing to release a ‘White Paper’ on her government’s approach to Brexit negotiations.  A PM spokesperson said the paper is “a separate issue” to the Article 50 bill, and it is unclear if it will be published before the Article 50 bill is passed.”