Europe: It’s all about politics - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that with the Eurozone economy trundling along, unable to get the growth rate above 2%, but for now comfortably holding above 1%, it’s politics rather than economics that matters.

Key Quotes

“The constitutional reform referendum in Italy on December 3, the Spanish government-building saga, Portugal’s credit rating, French and German elections all feature higher than unemployment or inflation. This weekend it was Hungary’s vote to reject mandatory refugee/migrant quotas which threatened to dominate but in fact, it looks like turnout is too low to make the vote valid. But we’ll go on trading off politics more than economics. The big left-field surprise would be easier German fiscal policy, absent which, I see range-bound Bunds, range=bound euro, range-bound almost everything.”