Turkey: Failed military coup last of an old era – RBS

Gabor Ambrus, Research Analyst at RBS,  suggests that the lack of support for the coup from within the military and in particular from within Turkish society gives a strong indication that this coup was most likely the last of an old era of military interference, rather than the first of a new era.

Key Quotes 

“This should meaningfully limit the market and economic ramifications of the tragic events.

A brief summary of the events

Turkish military personnel took to the streets in Istanbul and Ankara on Friday late afternoon and declared a coup, announcing a curfew and plans for a new constitution. Tanks fired at the parliament building and several explosions were reported in Istanbul and Ankara during the night.

A statement allegedly issued by the military and broadcast on TRT on Friday night said that "the democratic and secular rule of law has been eroded by the current government" and a “peace council” will assume control.

Yet, only a small faction of the Turkish military appears to have supported the attempted coup; Reuters reported that a number of top military officers went on TV during Friday night to condemn the events.

The coup was suppressed by Saturday midday by the joint efforts of the government-loyal military forces, the police, intelligence services and civilians who took to the streets following a televised address by President Erdogan to unite against the participants in the coup.

PM Binali Yildirim said that 161 people were killed, 1,440 were wounded and 2,839 army members were detained (Reuters). President Erdogan accused the Gulenist movement of instigating the coup but Fethullah Gulen denied the accusations (FT).

An emergency session of the parliament was called for Saturday and in a joint statement all the four parties of the parliament condemned the coup. (Hurriyet). International bodies (EU, NATO) and the leaders of a large number of countries (including the US and Germany) have condemned the coup.

The tanks were removed from the streets on Saturday afternoon. Peaceful protests were reported on the streets in major cities on Saturday night. (AP, NP)

Retributions started on Saturday with the removal of 2745 judges, prosecutors from their posts (Haberturk). Nearly 3,000 military personnel were also arrested (BBC). The Anadolu Agency reported that two judges of the Constitutional Court were also arrested.

The coup had no real military or social support

In our view, there were two major factors that contributed to the failure of the coup and understanding these two factors allows us to assess the likelihood of aftershocks and the impact on Turkish risk premia.

• Firstly, the coup seems to have had no strong support in the military itself.

• Secondly, and most importantly, there was no broad social support for the coup.”