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1 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: The Netherlands joins France on worry list - BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that yesterday the Dutch debt market showed little reaction to the idea that new deficit forecasts show that without new measures, it will overshoot the 3% target this year and next, leaving it vulnerable to a credit downgrade.
They feels that the main reason for the overshoot is as elsewhere, the denominator (GDP) is falling faster than spending and the Dutch economy is expected to contract by 0.5% this year. They add that the Netherlands joins France as core European countries that risk being sucked into the periphery debt crisis. They write, “Earlier this week, France reported an increase in unemployment. As a consequence, it should not be surprising that it reported a 0.8% decline in household consumption in January (the consensus was for a 0.2% decline).”
They feels that the main reason for the overshoot is as elsewhere, the denominator (GDP) is falling faster than spending and the Dutch economy is expected to contract by 0.5% this year. They add that the Netherlands joins France as core European countries that risk being sucked into the periphery debt crisis. They write, “Earlier this week, France reported an increase in unemployment. As a consequence, it should not be surprising that it reported a 0.8% decline in household consumption in January (the consensus was for a 0.2% decline).”