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30 Nov 2015
Near-term global rates outlook – Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, lists down the global rates outlook for the majors.
Key Quotes
“UST: In US rates, the proportion of clients expecting higher USTs rose from 72% to 80%. The profile corresponds to a weighted average 18bp rise in yields, compared to 15bp in the October survey. Given 10 year yields have already increased from around 2.10 to 2.25 since the last survey, clients expect US 10yr treasuries to still move a considerable amount more.
Bunds: Clients saw a higher likelihood of Bund yields falling further (43% vs 38%), consistent with an increase in expectations for further easing from the ECB. Moreover, the weighted average move for bunds has now turned negative (-2bp), thus there are expectations of a slight further rally, despite the 6bp move lower following the October survey.
Gilts: In the UK Gilt market, the weighted average increase is only 6bp versus 10bp in October, a fall since the dovish BoE Quarterly Inflation report.
JGB: The JGB picture remains broadly similar, with clients expecting just a 1bp increase into year-end. This flat outlook is consistent with the fact that only 8% expect action from the BOJ this side of the New Year.”
Key Quotes
“UST: In US rates, the proportion of clients expecting higher USTs rose from 72% to 80%. The profile corresponds to a weighted average 18bp rise in yields, compared to 15bp in the October survey. Given 10 year yields have already increased from around 2.10 to 2.25 since the last survey, clients expect US 10yr treasuries to still move a considerable amount more.
Bunds: Clients saw a higher likelihood of Bund yields falling further (43% vs 38%), consistent with an increase in expectations for further easing from the ECB. Moreover, the weighted average move for bunds has now turned negative (-2bp), thus there are expectations of a slight further rally, despite the 6bp move lower following the October survey.
Gilts: In the UK Gilt market, the weighted average increase is only 6bp versus 10bp in October, a fall since the dovish BoE Quarterly Inflation report.
JGB: The JGB picture remains broadly similar, with clients expecting just a 1bp increase into year-end. This flat outlook is consistent with the fact that only 8% expect action from the BOJ this side of the New Year.”