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30 Jun 2015
EUR/USD seen around parity by year-end – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair could grind towards the parity level by end of 2015, according to analysts at BAML.
Key Quotes
“We have marked-to market our Q3 EUR/USD projection, to 1.05 from 1.02, but keep our end-year projection to 1.00”.
“This assumes that US data will improve in H2, the Fed will start hiking rates in September, the ECB will push against the recent sell-off in rates, inflation will remain below the ECB’s target path, and the market will start expecting the ECB to continue with QE after September 2016”.
“At the same time, we expect the Fed to push against any strengthening of the USD that goes beyond what data would justify”.
“We do not expect Grexit in our baseline, but believe that Greek risks will continue weighing on the Euro, with Grexit risks increasing as long as Greece remains in a grey zone”.
Key Quotes
“We have marked-to market our Q3 EUR/USD projection, to 1.05 from 1.02, but keep our end-year projection to 1.00”.
“This assumes that US data will improve in H2, the Fed will start hiking rates in September, the ECB will push against the recent sell-off in rates, inflation will remain below the ECB’s target path, and the market will start expecting the ECB to continue with QE after September 2016”.
“At the same time, we expect the Fed to push against any strengthening of the USD that goes beyond what data would justify”.
“We do not expect Grexit in our baseline, but believe that Greek risks will continue weighing on the Euro, with Grexit risks increasing as long as Greece remains in a grey zone”.