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23 Feb 2015
Further downside seen in EUR/PLN – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Polish zloty could gather traction vs. its European peer in the upcoming months, suggested analysts at Danske Bank.
Key Quotes
“We are becoming slightly more optimistic on the outlook for the Polish economy – mostly on the back of an improved outlook for the euro zone. So while we expect lower GDP growth in 2015 than in 2014 we nonetheless expect growth to pick up during the year and into 2016”.
“The Polish central bank (NBP) continues to significantly undershoot its 2% inflation target and we are likely to see continued deflation in the coming months. So while we expect a pick-up in Polish growth the NBP still is likely to cut interest rates in response to the continued deflationary pressures”.
“The zloty has rebounded from the relatively weak levels of January and we are looking for a further appreciation of the zloty in the near-term”.
“The zloty is both supported by a moderately more positive outlook for growth as well as the ECB’s QE programme and with yields and rates coming down across Europe the zloty looks increasingly attractive from a carry perspective”.
“We lower our 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M EUR/PLN forecasts to 4.15, 4.10, 4.10 and 4.15 from 4.30, 4.30, 4.30 and 4.30, previously”.
Key Quotes
“We are becoming slightly more optimistic on the outlook for the Polish economy – mostly on the back of an improved outlook for the euro zone. So while we expect lower GDP growth in 2015 than in 2014 we nonetheless expect growth to pick up during the year and into 2016”.
“The Polish central bank (NBP) continues to significantly undershoot its 2% inflation target and we are likely to see continued deflation in the coming months. So while we expect a pick-up in Polish growth the NBP still is likely to cut interest rates in response to the continued deflationary pressures”.
“The zloty has rebounded from the relatively weak levels of January and we are looking for a further appreciation of the zloty in the near-term”.
“The zloty is both supported by a moderately more positive outlook for growth as well as the ECB’s QE programme and with yields and rates coming down across Europe the zloty looks increasingly attractive from a carry perspective”.
“We lower our 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M EUR/PLN forecasts to 4.15, 4.10, 4.10 and 4.15 from 4.30, 4.30, 4.30 and 4.30, previously”.