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10 Dec 2014
US data still points to rate lift-off around mid-2015 – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, yesterday’s further impressive economic reports (NFIB and JOLTS) from the US point to a continued strengthening of the economy.
Key Quotes
“We have often cited the importance of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and this index jumped to 98.1 in November, the highest level since February 2007. The NFIB itself stated that labour market conditions were tightening and that it expected upward pressure on compensation ahead.”
“The JOLTS report, also released yesterday, indicated continued improvement as well with total job openings rising to just below the recent cyclical high. The data is consistent with the FOMC maintaining the consensus message that rates will have to start moving higher around the middle of next year.”
“Oil remains a key net positive for the US economy at present and the FOMC is likely to focus more on the net benefits rather than on falling inflation expectations. As we have pointed out before, the gasoline price decline equates to around USD 70-80bn of extra cash for US consumers on an annualised basis."
“The monthly OPEC oil report will be released today and will be watched closely for any changes in assumptions on the demand/supply balance for the year ahead.”
Key Quotes
“We have often cited the importance of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and this index jumped to 98.1 in November, the highest level since February 2007. The NFIB itself stated that labour market conditions were tightening and that it expected upward pressure on compensation ahead.”
“The JOLTS report, also released yesterday, indicated continued improvement as well with total job openings rising to just below the recent cyclical high. The data is consistent with the FOMC maintaining the consensus message that rates will have to start moving higher around the middle of next year.”
“Oil remains a key net positive for the US economy at present and the FOMC is likely to focus more on the net benefits rather than on falling inflation expectations. As we have pointed out before, the gasoline price decline equates to around USD 70-80bn of extra cash for US consumers on an annualised basis."
“The monthly OPEC oil report will be released today and will be watched closely for any changes in assumptions on the demand/supply balance for the year ahead.”