AUD/USD has a chance to test its YTD high of 0.6330 – BBH

AUD/USD is trading just under its year-to-date high of 0.6330, BBH's FX analysts report.

Everything points to additional AUD/USD downside.

"The Melbourne Institute measure of inflation expectations one year out rose to 4.6% in February vs. 4.0% in January, matching its April 2024 high. RBA cash rate futures hardly budged and still imply 87% probability of a 25bps rate cut next week. Indeed, softer inflation pressures in Q4 support the case for the RBA to start easing."

"RBA/Fed policy trend and sluggish Chinese economic activity point to additional AUD/USD downside."