Does a jump in EUR/CHF point to a break above 1.08 in EUR/USD? – SocGen

EUR/CHF vaults parity for the first time since July. Does EUR/CHF point to a break higher in EUR/USD? Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, pens his view.

Which came first, the chicken or the Swiss franc? 

“EUR/CHF has tended to track EUR/USD in recent years, and by and large, it’s been EUR/USD which leads, not the other way around. But the EUR/CHF low on September 26 came two days before the EUR/USD low last year, and I wonder whether Franc’s fall points to another push higher in EUR/USD (a break of 1.08 could trigger an acceleration).”

“US Core CPI inflation probably needs to come in below the consensus forecast of 5.7% (from 6% last month) to give the Euro wings.”

See – US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, price pressures to ease further